What's Next, Now: April 2023
This month, our crystal ball predicts a return to essentials for businesses, a turning point for women’s sports, a looming EV boom, and more.
Business investment in generative AI has exploded — in 2022, there were 32 significant industry-produced machine learning models, compared to just three produced by academia. AI has the potential to be a transformative technology, but there are also concerns around the spreading of disinformation, deep fakes and cyber attacks, and the loss of jobs due to automation. Recently, an AI-generated photo of Pope Francis wearing a Balenciaga puffer coat went viral on Twitter that was later revealed to have been produced by an AI tool, highlighting the fact that the technology used to trick people is advancing far faster than the technology (and know-how) to identify AI.
At the end of March, the Future of Life Institute penned an open letter asking all AI labs to “immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.” The letter — which has nearly 19,000 signatures, including those of Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak — goes on to clarify that this does not mean AI labs should pause all AI development, but rather step back from the AI arms race. The letter focuses on certain types of AI development, such as autonomous weapons, until their risks can be fully assessed. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has also conceded that independent reviews might be necessary before training future systems.
Generative AI’s explosive popularity has placed it and similar emerging technologies under the microscope. With few policies or safeguards in place, it’s hard to regulate the use of this technology and slow the spread of misinformation. The open letter takes a first step, but its effectiveness is less certain. There is no way of telling which, if any, companies will take this pause seriously. And even if companies pause on AI development — bad actors will not. Generative AI likely isn’t going anywhere, but frameworks, policies, and regulations are likely in the coming months.
For the first time this year, the women’s NCAA basketball final was aired live on ABC. The game drew a record-high number of viewers, averaging 9.9 million. In comparison, that’s the same average audience size as the NBA finals in 2021 — and nearly double last year’s audience for the women’s title game. And it wasn’t just television ratings reaching new highs. Demand for seats at the game pushed ticket prices up higher than tickets for the men’s final — and, at one point, even higher than tickets for Taylor Swift.
Records are also breaking in women’s professional sports. This month, a group of investors committed to spending $125 million on a new Bay Area franchise for the National Women’s Soccer League — the biggest institutional investment ever made in a pro women’s sports team.
The conversation around women’s sports is evolving. Until recently, detractors claimed no one watched women’s sports, or, if they did, it was solely to support female athletes, not necessarily because they wanted to watch a great game. But with the recent influx of investment as brands increase their spending in women’s sports, we’re starting to see a real shift. The audiences are there, and, when given the opportunities and investment men have, the audiences will grow.
With the Women’s World Cup less than 100 days away, we’re sure to see more eyes (and wallets) on the game than ever. Investing in women’s sports is not just about supporting a good cause or making a statement anymore. As audiences and demand prove, it’s just good business.
With the economic outlook still uncertain, businesses are continuing to slash budgets and cut non-essentials — from cutting perks to laying off employees and docking departments.
Though layoff rates have cooled slightly after a tough start to the year, tech companies are still leveraging layoffs as a cost-cutting strategy. To inform decisions, a growing number of tech executives are re-prioritizing Revenue Per Employee, a simple measure of efficiency that was previously in vogue in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
Other companies are cutting costs by cutting certain perks. Previously heralded as one of the highlights of working in Big Tech (according to TikTok tech influencers, at least), the days of free dry cleaning, in-house baristas, and all-expense-paid yoga wellness retreats are no more.
For some companies, entire departments are being sidelined. The first department on the docket? The metaverse. After companies rushed in to become early adopters of the metaverse and related technologies in 2021, progress has been slow. With low user adoption and cumbersome tech, businesses aren’t getting the returns hoped for. Disney and Microsoft recently shut down their entire metaverse teams, and Meta is moving its eggs to the generative AI basket, instead.
With budget constraints top of mind, brands are identifying what matters most. It’s become a balancing act to maintain a healthy company culture while doubling down on efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Maintaining business priorities while remaining authentic to brand values will be key to navigating uncertain waters.
This month, the EPA proposed some of the strongest-ever pollution standards for vehicles, aimed at dramatically accelerating the shift toward electric vehicle (EV) adoption. The standards would require a set amount of CO2 emissions per mile on average across a company's production, eliminating 7.3 billion tons of CO2 — equivalent to four years worth of emissions from the entire U.S. transportation sector. But reducing emissions from gas-powered vehicles isn’t the only goal: The standards are so strict they would require EVs to account for up to two-thirds of new cars sold in the US by 2032.
This is not the Biden administration’s first aggressive push for EVs. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August of last year, provides purchase incentives for domestically-manufactured EVs. By the end of 2022, the new law had spurred more than $70 billion in investment from auto manufacturers developing EV and battery production in the U.S.
But even though the White House and auto industry seem to be on board with the move to EVs, consumers might not be quite ready. According to a recent survey from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and the Associated Press, 47% of U.S. adults say it’s not likely they would purchase an EV as their next car. Unsurprisingly, high costs were cited as the primary concern, followed by a lack of accessible charging infrastructure.
Working in the administration’s favor, young people are much more likely to consider an EV for their next vehicle than older generations. According to a recent Gallup poll, 75% of respondents aged 18-34 would consider or already own an EV. However, until consumers' concerns and needs are addressed, it will be hard to convince Americans their next car should run on batteries. While the Inflation Reduction Act was intended to address one of these concerns and make EVs more affordable, unclear guidelines are causing confusion for customers, instead of helping.
A brand partnership between Bud Light and transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney sparked outrage among some of the brand’s fervent fans who called for a boycott of the beer. Adding fuel to the fire, the brand’s only public response was a vague statement from the CEO, not directly addressing the controversy.
NPR became the first major organization to exit Twitter after the platform was misleadingly labeled “government-funded media,” a tag usually saved for state-controlled media like Russia’s Sputnik or China’s People’s Daily. PBS and CBC have followed suit.
The space industry has seen a flood of interest and investment over the past few years, now worth more than $400 billion. Now, NASA is gearing up to launch the first crewed mission to the moon in over 50 years, set to take off in November of next year.
Cable news was hit with two surprising firings on the same day as it struggles to keep up in a transforming industry: Fox News parted ways with Tucker Carlson, and Don Lemon was fired from CNN.
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