What's Next, Now: April 2023
This month, our crystal ball predicts a return to essentials for businesses, a turning point for women’s sports, a looming EV boom, and more.
Business investment in generative AI has exploded — in 2022, there were 32 significant industry-produced machine learning models, compared to just three produced by academia. AI has the potential to be a transformative technology, but there are also concerns around the spreading of disinformation, deep fakes and cyber attacks, and the loss of jobs due to automation. Recently, an AI-generated photo of Pope Francis wearing a Balenciaga puffer coat went viral on Twitter that was later revealed to have been produced by an AI tool, highlighting the fact that the technology used to trick people is advancing far faster than the technology (and know-how) to identify AI.
At the end of March, the Future of Life Institute penned an open letter asking all AI labs to “immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.” The letter — which has nearly 19,000 signatures, including those of Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak — goes on to clarify that this does not mean AI labs should pause all AI development, but rather step back from the AI arms race. The letter focuses on certain types of AI development, such as autonomous weapons, until their risks can be fully assessed. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has also conceded that independent reviews might be necessary before training future systems.
Generative AI’s explosive popularity has placed it and similar emerging technologies under the microscope. With few policies or safeguards in place, it’s hard to regulate the use of this technology and slow the spread of misinformation. The open letter takes a first step, but its effectiveness is less certain. There is no way of telling which, if any, companies will take this pause seriously. And even if companies pause on AI development — bad actors will not. Generative AI likely isn’t going anywhere, but frameworks, policies, and regulations are likely in the coming months.