What's Next, Now: January 2024
This month, our crystal ball predicts fights over food labeling, an anti-dating movement, pushback against DEI, and more.
You’ve heard of greenwashing, you’ve heard of rainbow washing, but may we introduce you to: plant-based washing. The term “plant-based” was originally coined to label products as vegan meat alternatives, such as a plant-based hamburger patty. Then, as the term gained marketing power, it grew to include foods that were naturally vegan, like coconut milk. Now, plant-based can be used to describe any product that doesn’t include meat, including products that aren’t foods at all, like plant-based shampoo and plant-based vapes.
The oversaturation of the label is causing the term to become passé already. Now, instead of leading consumers to believe a product is natural or healthy, plant-based has garnered a negative reputation due to its connections to ultra-processed vegan alternatives — earning them a new label, “Franken-food.”
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The term “ultra-processed” is another label currently under fire from health food communities — and the U.S. government. As the government prepares to release its next dietary guidelines (a report issued every five years that dictates which foods are considered “healthy” in the government’s eyes), federal researchers are probing into the health effects of ultra-processed foods. Recent studies have linked diets high in ultra-processed foods to several health concerns, including Type 2 diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and depression. But major food brands are pushing back on the demonization of processing, arguing it makes food safe, convenient, accessible, and affordable. (While there may be benefits to processing, they’re also worried about their own bottom lines — one food exec said ultra-processed foods account for 90% of their portfolio.)
While the government — and the internet — debates over the merits of processing, brands are already responding to consumer preferences for more natural foods. After Oatly and other oat milk brands faced social media pushback for their long ingredient lists containing suspicious ingredients like seed oils, Oatly answered with a new product: Oatly Super Basic Oatmilk, which has just four ingredients — water, oats, sea salt, and citrus zest.
Our prediction? The return of dairy milks. The milk industry has been preparing for a comeback, with a resurrection of the iconic Got Milk? campaign and even a push in court against the labeling of alternative milks as “milk.” And if consumers are looking for products with a low ingredient list, well, milk only has one.
Since its acquisition in 2023, X, formerly known as Twitter, has lost 15% of its user base and more than half of its advertisers. For the past year, both existing and emerging social platforms have been positioning themselves as “the next Twitter” — but none have really captured the crown as of yet. Instead, the competition has created an opportunity for social networks to bolster their product offerings and increase support for brands.
Recently, Reddit has been cozying up to brands with upgraded marketing tools and safeguards against some of the more questionable sides of the platform. Now, the internet’s front page is targeting another new audience: investors. Reddit will launch its long-rumored IPO in March, reportedly at a valuation of $15 billion. Some analysts see that figure as a little overambitious, but Reddit knows it has growing appeal — social media users are flocking toward niche platforms and community-driven forums, two areas where Reddit excels. LinkedIn has also been boosting its ad offerings in recent years, to great success. Ad revenue for LinkedIn climbed to $4 billion in 2023, double Twitter’s $2 billion. Even Pinterest is, as they say, having a moment.
But X isn’t giving up yet. The site continues to innovate, rolling out new features and programs including shows by former CNN anchor Don Lemon and sports commentator Jim Rome, and eventually, peer-to-peer payments.
The social media landscape continues to be a messy place for brands to navigate. No one-size-fits-all solution has been found yet, as no platform has been able to replicate the real-time feel of posting to X. Marketers have been forced to experiment with new strategies and platforms. And even if brands are pulling back from advertising and posting on the site, X still makes itself impossible to ignore, due to consumer engagement. Diversified strategies will remain a priority for social listening, community management, and paid advertising.
Sex sells, but apparently so does love — at least, that’s what dating apps are hoping. For the most part, dating apps are free, with a majority of platforms offering freemium models with paid subscriptions that offer users the opportunity to boost their profiles, send more likes, and, hopefully, find more quality matches. In 2022, dating app downloads hit their lowest download rate in four years. Match Group, which owns 45 dating brands including Tinder and Hinge, raised prices and introduced new subscription levels across its most popular platforms in 2023, but millennials and Gen Z aren’t buying.
A 2023 survey of college and graduate students found 79% don’t use dating apps even once a month. On top of walled profiles on the free version of apps, users have become disenchanted with disappointing algorithms and the endless scrolling through profiles. In Japan, 19% of women and 24% of men in their 20s said that having a romantic relationship is a waste of time and money. With ineffective dating apps and rising prices at restaurants, it’s not surprising that many 20 (and 30)-somethings are swearing off dating altogether.
The average American spends about $168 a month on dating, making the dating industry a huge contributor to the economy. With more people moving away from excessive dating app swiping — or swearing off dating altogether — nightlife, restaurants, and experiences could feel the effects.
One industry poised to benefit from modern attitudes toward dating? Sex tech. While sex tech isn’t new, this year at CES we saw a number of vendors promoting new innovations, like Norwegian sex tech company OHDOKI, which introduced the Oh!, a silent, wireless, and bluetooth-enabled vibrator that uses sound waves to create vibrations.
In 2020, many companies adopted and re-invigorated corporate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in response to civil unrest. From instituting Chief Diversity Officers to announcing ambitious commitments, corporations were quick to meet social-justice related consumer demands. Nearly four years later, these same words and acronyms are being weaponized.
Budget cuts and layoffs have disproportionately affected these reinstated positions and departments dedicated to promoting DEI in a corporate setting. Additionally, a recent study from Indeed found that in mid-2023, DEI-related job postings had declined 44% from the same time a year prior.
For many businesses, though, pulling back on DEI doesn’t equal getting rid of diversity initiatives altogether. Instead, brands are reframing DEI into conversations around employee wellness and inclusion, and emphasizing that their programs are for all, not just specific groups of people. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently addressed attacks against the company’s DEI initiatives, saying “I’m going to start by telling you that I’m a full-throated, red-blooded, patriotic, unwoke, capitalist CEO … We’re hiring great kids … who wanna work, give a damn, want a job, wanna work hard, and wanna get ahead. God bless ’em—and they’re gonna get a chance at JPMorgan regardless of color.”
As criticism is expected to rise as presidential election campaigns kick into full swing, brands will need to maintain an intentional, authentic approach to their DEI practices. Remaining true to their brand ethos will be key to supporting their employees, customers, and stakeholders in a meaningful way during what is expected to be a volatile political environment.
Are the risks of AI starting to outweigh the rewards? At Davos, CEOs across industries named AI as the biggest threat to businesses in 2024, while the new Edelman Trust Barometer revealed innovation (like AI) is causing a growing rift in trust, with respondents feeling innovation is being poorly managed by companies and governments. According to new research from Gartner, 20% of brands are rejecting AI altogether, leaning into being “AI-free” as a point of differentiation.
The NCAA and ESPN inked an eight-year, $920 million extension to their current broadcasting agreement, worth 3x their current deal. With 11 extra college championships (plus $65 million for women’s March Madness) and additional investment in both long and short-form storytelling content, the NCAA hopes the new package will help with some of its longstanding issues with gender equity.
Google is getting serious about the end of tracking cookies: A new feature called Tracking Protection, which restricts third-party cookies by default, began rolling out to select Chrome users this month.
One unexpected brand hoping to buck the anti-dating trend? Applebees, which released a $200 dollar subscription pass ahead of Valentine’s Day worth a year of weekly date nights.
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